Data & Statistics

Time Series & Forecasting

ARIMA, SARIMA, exponential smoothing, VAR and Prophet models, validated on held-out data.

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A forecast is only worth something if it has been tested against data the model never saw. In-sample fit tells you almost nothing about forecast accuracy.

We test stationarity, difference where required, identify and fit the model, then validate on a hold-out period with reported error metrics and prediction intervals.

What you receive

  • Stationarity testing and transformation decisions
  • Model identification with ACF/PACF diagnostics
  • Out-of-sample validation with MAE, RMSE and MAPE
  • Forecasts with prediction intervals
  • Reproducible script

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Next step

Ready to talk about Time Series & Forecasting?

Send the brief, the deadline and anything you already have. You will get a reference number straight away and a considered reply, usually within one working day.

  • Fixed quote agreed before any work begins
  • A reference number you can quote on WhatsApp
  • Confidential handling, and an NDA if you want one
  • An honest answer if your deadline is not realistic
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